It is a question that I have often heard asked, as well as
\nbeing a regular explanation made when laying the blame for a
\nperiod of quieter sales leading up to the general election.
\nUsing REINZ property sales statistics covering a total of 7
\ngeneral elections held over the past 22 years, I found on
\naverage, general elections depress property sales as 5 of the
\n8 elections caused property sales to decline as compared to
\nnormal. However there is no real consistency.
\nWithout a convincing answer, I reflected on the impact
\neconomic sentiment has on the property market at the time of
\neach election. I plotted these variances to the norm for the 3
\nmonths run up to each election against the GDP trend from
\nReserve Bank data.
\nNow in my view this correlation makes sense and aligns the
\nelection to the cycle of GDP as follows:
\n1993 – GDP on a surge, economic optimism = 14% rise in
\nrelative sales
\n1996 – GDP declining, economic pessimism, compounded by
\nfirst MMP election = 19% decline in relative sales
\n1999 – GDP starting recovery from Asian crisis, economic
\ncaution = 7% decline in relative sales
\n2002 – GDP cautious recovery from post 2001 falls, economic
\ncaution = 2% decline in relative sales
\n2005 – GDP declining, economic caution = 1% decline in
\nrelative sales
\n2008 – GDP collapsing, economic pessimism = 5% decline in
\nrelative sales
\n2011 – GDP recovery, growing economic confidence = 3%
\nrise in relative sales
\nIt would be safe to say that not surprisingly the impact of an
\nelection on the property market is more a reflection of the
\neconomic confidence at the time than any across- the-board
\nview that elections dampen property markets.
\nAs to September 2014 well with one month’s data in the
\nsystem, I am sorry to say for all those looking to blame the
\nelection for a dampening of sales results – doesn’t look like it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
It is a question that I have often heard asked, as well as being a regular explanation made when laying the blame for a period of quieter sales leading up to the general election. Using REINZ property sales statistics covering a total of 7 general elections held over the past 22 years, I found on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1116,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"slim_seo":{"title":"Does the General Election Impact the Property Market \u2013 Alistair Helm - colinrealestate","description":"It is a question that I have often heard asked, as well as being a regular explanation made when laying the blame for a period of quieter sales leading up to th"},"footnotes":""},"categories":[5532],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-real-estate-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1116"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=620"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":621,"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620\/revisions\/621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/colinrealestate.blogtown.co.nz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}