colinrealestate

Once the engineers re-review the buildings subsequent to the Xmas shakes, the rebuild will get under way in earnest. Much was being started late last year and already the demand for staff and materials was being noticed across the country.

What does that mean locally? We may see a number of our building-associated companies send staff to the quake city which could limit the rate at which repairs, extensions and alterations etc can be completed. It could also see some of our building-related manufacturers and or importers do well and in fact need more staff. In general, the Chch rebuild will be good for our national economy but create scarcity and competition for services in many towns and cities as staff head to Canterbury.

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While export prices for dairy, meat, grain, logs and wool have settled back of recent weeks, anticipations are that all will remain strong this year and continue the re-emergence of economies in rural and regional towns and cities.

The impact of the rapidly increasing numbers of cruise liners around our coasts has been little short of incredible this year and we hear that next year there will be more liners going to more ports and or off shore stopovers.

Akaroa was one of the winners this year, with Port of Lyttleton unable to host over a hundred liner visits.

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Not much has changed since I reported last month. The NZ OCR looks likely to remain as it is for much of if not all of this year and some are suggesting that if the Euro mess effects the UK market and in turn the downturns in both of those markets effect demand for Chinese-produced goods [appliances, cars, heavy engineering etc]…then export sale income into NZ could well slow, thereby effecting our economy resulting in a drop in the OCR aimed at encouraging us all to spend!

Sooner or later that decision on whether or not to fix a mortgage will confront us all, but that seems not to be likely for a while.

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While we often comment on the national market one thing that has been increasingly making itself evident these past few months is that any general, national commentary is almost always fatally incorrect in any local market! So, what I’m saying is that economics “soothsayer’s” comment and or prediction, while to be taken notice of, will not reflect what’s going on in our region, our locality and certainly not in your street.

While nationally, listings are as scarce, as ever, well presented and priced homes continue to be contested. There are two lessons there:

For vendors the need to present a fresh, tidy, uncluttered home is imperative if we are to attract the very canny buyers in the market at present.
For buyers, we note the intense competition for those few well presented and priced homes on the market and often see disappointed purchasers who’ve perhaps left their offer a little too late and are repeatedly on the outer in multi offer situations. A case of “he who hesitates seems to regularly lose” to coin and amend that phrase.

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While we all hear stories of Toyota’s 500 year Business Plan, I have been reminded recently of the long-term planning approach commercial developers take. I’ve heard of a number of large retail and service developments, ‘Big Box’ shopping centres and so forth, that major developers have been working on for some time and notwithstanding the GFC have continued through the planning and approval process with the simple view that “It stacked up when we started down the programme and when the market settles, it will again!”
They’re right, of course. They’re also courageous, well researched and fiscally sound!  As is befitting our aging population, “Lifestyle Villages” are also being churned out in large numbers.

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After an increase in vacancies earlier in the year the entire market has closed up again with most of our offices reflecting our own situation; not much spare capacity.
Again I have to add that the better presented, warmer, drier and modernised properties are being snapped up while others languish unloved…seemingly  by both owners and tenants.
With prices stable and low in many ‘rentable areas’ now’s being seen as good time to add to investment portfolios by careful property investors. From time to time they’re having to compete with some pretty vigorous competition from first home owners!

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So, 100 more people left the country last month than arrived. Most went to Australia.  Records indicate many were youngsters and others, young families seeking higher paid semi-skilled and unskilled work. Not good, but not new.
Records also show that the Australian job market is drying up as their economy slows…usually this sees a quick shift in outflow numbers. It is also a view that most of those departing are not property owners…and First National is currently researching that very point. Watch for our media comment.
What we do need to remind ourselves that if almost as many arrived as left, our internal economy grew. Simple. To be allowed to immigrate to NZ you must have skills and money.  Of course, our economy will grow faster if we can keep our citizens home and that is a major issue for the new Govt.

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Another shift in the market is being noticed right across the industry and the country sees an increase in lifestyle property sales. While I can’t define the background with real precision, reports are that following changes in pricing these past few years, buyers are recognising that there is, in many instances, a better “bang for their buck” in the rural surrounds of their home town or city than in  better parts of their urban market.

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Same old, same old! While sales volumes are up from the short ‘stall’ during the Rugby World Cup, they are really just a continuation of the better parts of 2011. Well priced, very well presented, [and I mean that] homes are selling quickly no matter what sector of the market they sit.

As I mentioned mid-year, those homes are being fought over with multi-offers almost expected now. What’s also the same is that the ‘losing’ buyers are then sitting back and waiting for another top property…in other words they are not being panicked into buying second best.

This scenario appears right across the entire market and the country, first homes, family homes and opulent properties; ‘cherry picking’ some call it.  In a bid to get a measure on this, we are suggesting owners of homes  that are sticking in the market checkout other homes in their sector but which have sold recently, just to get a market perspective.

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There’s just no doubt about it, the better farm incomes enjoyed by most rural sectors this past year or so are having a real effect on rental and purchase demand in rural service towns and the larger regional towns and cities.  Increased farm expenditure and an increase in on-farm staff seems to be driving those markets strongly.

As an aside, our Taranaki rural team sold more farms in November than the entire industry in that region sold in the May – October period!  Things are on the move there!

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