MIGRATION – NZ
What is the impact of migration on the housing market? At the moment, migration is a drag on the normal state of affairs because the net flow in the year to May was a loss of 3,653 and because the average flow over the past ten years has been a gain of 15,000 p.a.
However, what will happen when the migration cycle switches back to a reasonable positive? Clearly we will then have another source of upward pressure on NZ house prices. This will add to the pressures from rising construction standards and costs, builder shortages, investor and first home buyer demand, and the stimulus from low interest rates.
So is the migration cycle turning? BNZ Weekly Overview believes that migration numbers may be turning. The annual loss in February was 4,068, so maybe the peak has been reached. Is there a sharp turnaround underway? In seasonally adjusted terms, the net flow over the three months to May was a loss of 390 people compared with 1,580 in the three months to February and 1,450 in the three months to November. There will be some interesting months ahead.
Filed under: REAL ESTATE | Tagged: Real Estate