FACTORS DRIVING HOUSE PRICES

REINZ HOUSE SALES: NEUTRAL
Housing turnover has slowed but that should not necessarily be taken as a sign that house prices may follow. The likely cause is a listings shortage.
INTEREST RATES: UP
Interest rates have started to move up but are still low.
OCR: UP
Still on hold, the OCR is unlinkely to move from 2.5% until early next year.
IMMIGRATION: UP
Net Migration has reached the highest level in four years, with 2300 more arrivals than departures in June.
BUILDING CONSENTS:
UP, TURNING NEUTRAL
The latest statistics show the 26 month-on-month increase in a row for consents for new houses.
MORTGAGE APPROVALS: UP, TURNING NEUTRAL
The number of mortgage approvals seems to be slowing but is coming off very fast growth earlier in the year.
RENTS: NEUTRAL, TURNING DOWN
Government data indicates a year-on-year drop.



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