Will the interest rates cause the market to slow down? (BNZ Economist, Tony Alexander)

The predictions are yes! However, it is very difficult to predict, particularly a market such as Auckland and Christchurch, who are driven by a shortage of supply. There are also a lot of younger borrowers who have not seen the rises in interest rates seen by the baby boomers as the current rates we see only came into effect after the GFC.

 

There are five influences to remember; the first is that the LVR (loan-to-value rules) has taken some first home buyers from the market. Secondly, net migrants to New Zealand are booming and likely to remain strong over the next two years. Thirdly, the economy is picking up which will produce further employment and wage growth. Fourthly, building costs will rise with new home construction and finally demand from offshore buyers continues to grow.



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